Gold has always been more than a shiny metal. it’s a barometer of fear, faith, and financial moves. In 2025 we’ve seen prices hit new highs globally and locally, and many analysts believe 2026 could be another strong year. Below, I break down what’s driving gold’s rise, what the current rates look like (Pakistan & global), and where we might see it go by 2026.
1. Current Gold Rates & Recent Trends
🇵🇰 In Pakistan
- Today’s 24K gold per tola climbed to Rs. 398,800, up by Rs. 5,100. (The Express Tribune)
- In major cities, the 10-gram gold price has also jumped to Rs. 341,906. (The Express Tribune)
- Some sources are quoting rates as high as Rs. 442,600 per tola in certain markets. (Gold.pk)
Local factors like import duties, currency fluctuations (PKR vs USD), and domestic demand (especially weddings and individual investment) play a big role in pushing local rates upward.
🌏 Global / Forecast Data
- Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 gold forecast to $4,000 per ounce. (Reuters)
- Goldman Sachs lifted its forecast for December 2026 to $4,900 per ounce citing strong ETF inflows and central bank demand. (Reuters)
- ING expects gold to average around $4,150/oz in 2026. (The Economic Times)
- J.P. Morgan expects prices to average $3,675/oz in late 2025 and rise toward $4,000/oz in mid-2026. (JPMorgan)
So globally, the consensus is: gold is expected to remain strong. Many forecasts only call for short corrections, not a full reversal.
2. Why Gold Price Is Going Up (Drivers)
To understand why these forecasts lean bullish, look at the main forces pushing gold upward right now:
- Safe-Haven Demand & Macro Risk: When economic uncertainty or geopolitical tension rises, investors drift to gold as protection.
- Central Bank Buying & ETF Inflows: Central banks are adding reserves and ETFs keep pulling in capital both increase demand.
- Weakening Dollar: Gold and the U.S. dollar often move inversely. A softer dollar helps gold climb.
- Supply & Mining Constraints: Higher extraction costs, tougher regulations, and fewer new discoveries limit supply growth.
- Inflation Hedge: Gold is a classic hedge when real interest rates fall and inflation remains elevated.
- Local Currency & Import Factors (Pakistan): Duties, FX availability, and rupee weakness can push local rates well above global moves.
3. What to Expect in 2026 (Outlook & Scenarios)
| Scenario | Likely Price Range (per ounce) | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Base Case | $3,800 – $4,200 | Continued central bank buying, moderate inflation, stable demand |
| Bull Case | $4,500 – $5,000+ | Major geopolitical shocks, large ETF inflows, aggressive monetary easing |
| Correction / Bear Case | $3,200 – $3,600 | Strong dollar rebound, rate hikes, lower inflation, subdued demand |
Many banks now use $4,000/oz as a baseline target for 2026 (Reuters). Goldman’s $4,900/oz estimate shows how much upside is possible in extreme scenarios. If global prices rise and the rupee weakens, local Pakistani rates could breach Rs. 500,000+ per tola in optimistic cases.
4. Risks & Things That Could Hold Gold Back
- Interest Rate Hikes: If central banks raise rates aggressively, gold’s appeal weakens.
- Stronger USD: A sustained dollar rally could pressure gold prices down.
- Reduced Inflation: Falling inflation reduces gold’s hedge value.
- Profit-Taking / Corrections: After a strong run, some investors may sell to lock gains.
- Policy or Regulatory Shifts: New taxes, trade rules, or mining policies can affect supply and local pricing.
5. My Take & What I’d Watch
I lean toward a bullish 2026 for gold. My expectation: global prices averaging around $4,200–4,500/oz, with peaks above $5,000/oz if a major shock hits markets. Locally in Pakistan, a combination of global strength and a weaker PKR could push some market rates over Rs. 500,000 per tola.
If you’re investing or buying jewelry:
- Buy in tranches- don’t try to time the absolute top or bottom.
- Watch global cues: U.S. Fed decisions, the dollar index, and central bank buying patterns.
- Favor 24K or high-purity gold where possible (less percentage loss on making charges and resale).
Final Word
Gold is acting like it always does in uncertain times: a dependable store of value. The mix of central bank demand, ETF inflows, and persistent inflation expectations suggests 2026 could be another strong year for gold. But remember markets move in cycles. A cautious, measured approach works best: buy what you can afford to hold, keep an eye on macro signals, and avoid emotional moves during volatility.